Good morning! We have a multi-faceted severe weather threat coming up on Wednesday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. I’ll be posting this discussion on the RedZone Weather Facebook Page in about an hour when more folks are awake so we can maximize the number of people that see this. Very significant severe weather possible Wednesday! Here is the discussion…
MORE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT… A multi-faceted, significant severe weather event could happen starting as early as 9-11PM this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The image attached is the latest convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center valid for Wednesday, April 5, 2017.
TONIGHT… A line of storms (squall line) will likely move through southwest Alabama and northwest Florida late this evening into early Wednesday. This squall line could be potentially severe, containing areas that have the potential of producing damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes. This would be round 1 out of the 3 that will happen. We note SPC has placed much of our area in the Level 2 “slight” risk area to see isolated severe storms overnight, with portions of Washington, Clarke, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama being in the more pronounced Level 3 “enhanced” risk. Here is the convective outlook valid for today into the overnight hours….
ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT… Following the passage of the squall line early Wednesday morning, a warm front moves north from the Gulf of Mexico, ushering in unstable air that COULD set the stage for the development of supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, perhaps as early as Wednesday morning.
The Storm Prediction Center is noting that a few long-track, strong tornadoes will yet again become possible across portions of Alabama and Georgia during this timeframe. We note that EASTERN fringes of our primary coverage area are now included in the Level 4 (out of 5) “moderate” risk zone due to this possibility… Second moderate risk in two days, yet still a risk zone that remains fairly rare for our area. Once or twice a year typically.
This *could* be a substantial tornado threat…
Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Evergreen, Repton, Greenville, Georgiana, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Century, Molino, Berrydale, Jay, Baker, and Crestview are all included in this significant Level 4 “moderate” risk zone. The remainder of our region is in the Level 3 “enhanced” risk zone, meaning tornadoes and damaging winds will still be possible but perhaps not as widespread or intense. It should be noted that again, it really doesn’t matter what “risk zone” you’re in. The severe weather risk could be **potentially** major and quite an impactful event on Wednesday!
These discrete thunderstorms with the enhanced tornado potential mentioned above would be round 2 out of 3 of our multi-faceted severe weather event.
WEDNESDAY EVENING… Round 3 of 3 would be a second squall line that will move through the area most likely later on Wednesday evening, with the risk of damaging winds being the big concern with isolated tornadoes being the secondary concern.
UNCERTAINTY… As the severe weather event Monday unfolded, it became very obvious early in the event that the line of storms would move through the area quickly with supercell development out ahead of the main line of storms. This was in stark contrast to the information that I (along with everyone else in the weather enterprise) was advertising. The fact of the matter is, regardless of how much time and effort we put into forecasting, there will ALWAYS be uncertainty.
There is uncertainty involved with this system as well. The main thing being that I’m not totally sure when/if/where convection will fire up to produce this extensive tornado threat — the thing is, we know this is a possibility at this point, and being that it certainly could happen… I need you to be prepared. TODAY is the time to start getting prepared. We’re going to have a nice Tuesday. Make sure, again, to go through our tornado checklist that I posted Sunday evening to ensure that you’re ready for this potential event. Phones/devices charged, helmets/whistles ready, closed-toed shoes, pets accounted for, ready to move to action when/if tornado warnings are issued.
I’ll have an in-depth video posted in the next few hours detailing this growing severe weather threat. Enjoy this SUNNY Tuesday ahead. If you didn’t know better by today’s weather, you’d think we’re in a great spot. Tornadoes will become possible overnight, well after sunset. Enjoy the day!